Canada and China’s relationship has faced significant challenges in recent years, shaped by geopolitical shifts and differing national interests. While there are signs of improvement, substantial tensions remain due to fundamental differences in values and foreign policy objectives. As both nations navigate a complex international landscape characterized by multipolarity, effectively managing their relationship is crucial to promoting mutual and national interests.
Recent Challenges
Canada-China relations have been strained by several high-profile incidents. The arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver in December 2018, at the request of the United States, marked a turning point. In response, China detained two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, accusing them of espionage. This incident, lasting nearly three years, brought Canada-China relations to their lowest point in decades and highlighted deep-rooted differences in their legal and political systems.
Additionally, Canada’s stance on human rights issues, particularly regarding the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, the situation in Hong Kong, and the sovereignty of Taiwan, has contributed to tensions. Canada has joined other Western nations in condemning China’s actions, leading to strong rebukes from Beijing. These actions underscore a clash of values: Canada supports a rules-based international order emphasizing human rights, democracy, and the rule of law, while China promotes a model that prioritizes state sovereignty and economic development.
Despite these challenges, both Canada and China have shown interest in improving their relationship. The release of Meng Wanzhou and the return of the «Two Michaels» to Canada in September 2021 provided an opportunity for a diplomatic reset. Since then, there have been efforts to engage in dialogue and rebuild trust. High-level meetings between Canadian and Chinese officials have resumed, and there are signs of willingness to collaborate on global issues such as climate change, public health, and economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Economic ties remain strong, providing a foundation for improved relations. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, and both nations have significant economic interests in maintaining a stable relationship. Recent years have seen an increase in Canadian agricultural exports to China, suggesting a mutual interest in managing differences and avoiding further escalation of tensions.
Future Challenges
While there are reasons for cautious optimism, the future of Canada-China relations will not be free of tension. The international system is undergoing a transformation characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world order. As a rising global power, China aims to reshape international institutions and norms to reflect its interests and values, which often conflict with those of Western democracies, including Canada.
China’s initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its assertive stance in the South China Sea, and its strategic partnerships with countries challenging the US-led order, indicate a strategy to establish a new global equilibrium. This presents a challenge for Canada, which remains committed to a rules-based international order. Navigating this complex terrain requires balancing engagement with China on areas of mutual interest while standing firm on national values and security.
While there are reasons for cautious optimism, the future of Canada-China relations will not be free of tension. The international system is undergoing a transformation characterized by a shift toward a multipolar world order.
Strategies for Managing the Relationship
To manage its relationship with China effectively, Canada must adopt a strategy of geopolitical balancing, particularly in key regions such as the Arctic, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic, which are crucial to its national security and strategic interests. The strategy should include the following components:
1. Geopolitical Balancing in the Arctic, North Pacific, and North Atlantic: The Arctic, North Pacific, and North Atlantic are critical strategic centers of gravity for Canada. China has shown increasing interest in the Arctic, viewing it as a region rich in resources and a potential new shipping route. China’s self-declared status as a «near-Arctic state» and its involvement in Arctic research and infrastructure projects raise concerns about its long-term intentions. Canada must strengthen its sovereignty and presence in the Arctic by enhancing its military capabilities, investing in icebreaker ships, and increasing surveillance and domain awareness. In the North Pacific and North Atlantic, Canada should maintain collaboration with the United States and other allies to ensure regional security and uphold international maritime laws.
2. Strategic Restraint and Strengthening Key Alliances: Canada must exercise strategic restraint given its limited resources. Rather than extending its defense ties broadly across the Indo-Pacific region, Canada should concentrate on areas where it can make a substantial impact—specifically in the Arctic, North Pacific, and North Atlantic. By focusing on these regions, Canada can contribute to a stable balance of power in an increasingly multipolar world and support a stable Canada-China relationship.
3. Defending Against Chinese Espionage and Interference: Canada must remain vigilant against Chinese espionage and interference in its domestic affairs. There is evidence of Chinese espionage activities within Canada, targeting government and private sector entities. To counter these threats, Canada should strengthen its intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, including enhancing the resources and authority of its security agencies such as the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) and the Communications Security Establishment (CSE).
4. Addressing Manipulation of the Canadian-Chinese Diaspora: The Chinese government has been known to exert influence over Chinese diaspora communities abroad, including in Canada. This manipulation can include attempts to shape public opinion, mobilize support for Chinese government policies, or suppress dissent against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Canada should foster open dialogue within Chinese-Canadian communities and support those advocating for human rights and democratic freedoms.
5. Preventing Interference in Canadian Electoral Politics: Allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian electoral politics, including attempts to influence election outcomes and policy decisions, have raised concerns about the integrity of Canada’s democratic processes. Canada should enhance its legal framework to detect, deter, and punish foreign interference, including stricter reporting requirements for political donations, greater transparency in campaign financing, and improved monitoring of social media for disinformation campaigns.
6. Building Domestic Resilience: Strengthening Canada’s domestic resilience is essential to counter the challenges posed by China’s actions. This includes enhancing public awareness about foreign interference and promoting a robust national security culture. Canada should invest in its digital and cyber infrastructure to protect against cyberattacks and espionage, and foster a diverse and inclusive society that values democratic principles and human rights.
Canada-China relations are at a crossroads. While there are signs of improvement following a period of significant strain, the relationship is unlikely to be free of tension in the future. The transition to a multipolar world order, coupled with China’s ambition to reshape the international system, presents both challenges and opportunities for Canada. The key will be to manage these dynamics in a way that advances both shared and national interests. By adopting a balanced approach, Canada can navigate the complexities of its relationship with China and contribute to a more stable and prosperous global order.